Introduction to American Football Betting
The NFL is the biggest American football league in the world, supported by the fan-driven college-level NCAA. The hard-hitting gridiron action offers a unique sporting experience, and for bettors looking to gain a foothold in American football betting, an understanding of markets will improve the chances of long-term success.
Popular American Football Betting Markets
The following is a quick overview of the most popular leading American football betting markets.
Point Spread Betting
Betting against the spread (ATS) is a handicapping format. A Buffalo Bills -4.5 spread requires them to win the match by at least 5 points for the bet to win.
Moneyline Betting
A moneyline option is a prediction of which team will win the match. It is presented as positive and negative figures like -180 and +250; the minus denotes the favourite.
Over/Under (Totals) Betting
Over/under points totals can apply to the entire match, a particular quarter or half, or a team’s total. You can set the over/under line where required, such as Over 65.5 or Under 58.5.
Prop Bets
Prop bets focus on team and player performances, such as the number of running yards a player will make or the number of quarterback sacks a team will make.
Parlay Betting
A parlay bet is where two or more options are combined into one wager and offer the potential of a big payout from a small stake, but as all selections have to win, they are risky bets. Popular parlay markets are the spread and the moneyline.
Futures Betting
Futures are long-term prospective markets that focus on outcomes such as the Super Bowl Champions, Divisional and Conference winners, and end-of-season player awards.
Effective American Football Betting Strategies
For responsible gambling, gaining understanding of key strategies is a major foundation.
Bankroll Management
From your overall budget, plan out the stake for each bet and don’t make unplanned bets, which can be particularly tempting with in-play betting. This ensures that you don’t spend more than you can afford to.
Line Shopping
To strengthen your selections, line shopping is a strategy of comparing odds at multiple bookmakers. There will be marginal differences per bet, but they add up over the long-term.
Research and Analysis
Analyse important statistics that relate to your betting strategy, whether that’s a player’s average rushing yards per game, defensive rankings or average turnover per game. Specific metrics work for specific markets.
Home Field Advantage
The NFL has seen a consistent decline in home-field advantage as travel has become easier and away-day preparations have improved. Home advantage is now roughly worth three points on the average spread.
Betting Against the Public
If there has been a rush of bets on a San Francisco 49ers win, it could mean the public is overvaluing them and bookmakers will lengthen the odds on their opponent. With good statistics research, fading the public can lead to good value bets.
In-Play (Live) Betting
As a game unfolds, use the in-game dynamics to form live betting selections on options like which team will win the current quarter, the total points at half-time and even player bets. A good live betting strategy is to try and get ahead of markets at the first sign of a momentum shift, which could signal a big comeback success. In-play betting can be emotionally driven, so have a clear strategy.
Advanced Betting Strategies
There is a journey for NFL betting experience, and the further along the path you get, the more likely advanced systems will come onto the radar. Here are some to look out for:
Teasers
If the bookmaker’s line on a Baltimore Ravens spread is at -4.5, you could tease that into -3.5 to eliminate some risk for a sacrifice of odds. A teaser must include at least two selections, which are combined into a parlay.
Yardage Props and Player Props
Props are a big deal because of how many different metrics are measured in American football. The most popular among these are on attacking players, like how many receiving passing or rushing yards a player will make, allowing bettors to focus on specific trends of players who are in form.
Situational Betting
Check team schedules to account for playing frequency and travel. Also, look at a team’s motivation in a match. A team that needs a win to seal a wildcard place, for example, will likely play with extra verve.
NFL Trends and Systems
Look at existing trends to adapt to personal preferences, like betting against the Super Bowl champions in the early part of the new season, when they are typically more vulnerable to not covering the spread.
Divisional matches tend to have much tighter outcomes and, therefore, lower spread margins, which can favour underdogs. A first-half underdog system focuses on a team covering a spread at halftime instead of the entire match, where they may run out of steam.
Key Factors to Consider When Betting on American Football
Beyond understanding the markets and how to read odds, further external factors must be considered.
Injury Reports
If the Kansas City Chiefs are missing star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, that could knock their chances of winning the match or at least affect their total scoring output. Injuries to key players can be impactful, especially quarterbacks, who are the most influential players on a team.
Coaching Styles
Head coaches run the show, and these decision-makers influence matches, so it’s good to know their tactical approach. How adept are they at choosing a bold offensive move over playing it safe on a fourth down? Do they manage the game well with time-outs and altering tactics when momentum shifts against them?
Turnover Margin
The more a team gives the ball away, the more likely they are to be punished for it. The difference in giveaways and takeaways can indicate form and offer insights into betting against the spread or on the moneyline.
In Conclusion
Fine-tune your American Football strategy by using the information above to focus on more accurate American Football predictions by researching relevant stats on your preferred areas to target long-term success.
Control how much you stake per bet so that you can gamble responsibly. Explore the latest NFL odds at leading bookmakers, where you can find a wide range of markets from the moneyline to props, price boosts, parlay options, and more.