Opening cases in CS2 isn’t entirely a game of chance, as many might assume. Although the chances of obtaining rare skin are significantly lower than those of obtaining a common one, the percentage is not zero. With the right idea on the probabilities, you’ll be able to get a better look at your chances and have greater luck at acquiring rare items in CS2 going forward.
Whenever you open a case in CS2, the clear driving force is the hope of obtaining a rare item to add to your collection or trade for better items. This is the major reason why Valve created cases and why we as fans are so drawn to them; it’s the hope surrounding them. For market stability and to keep the skin community thriving, Valve has an obligation to regulate the amount of rare items on the market, forcing them to be very careful about how many they dish out for free.
For quite some time, the actual numbers were up for fan speculation, and we never really had an accurate idea about the actual drop probabilities up until 2017. Following a directive by the Chinese government that required gaming publishers to publicly disclose the reveal probabilities for items in loot crates, Valve issued an announcement with their official numbers in compliance.
Valve’s Weapon Case Odds for CS2
In Valve’s announcement, they highlighted how the different rarity tiers in CS2 worked and how much of a difference there truly was separating each tier. The higher you go on the tier list, the rarity of items multiplies by 5 up to the final tier. Below is the official rarity list for weapon cases in CS2:
- Exceedingly Rare
- Covert
- Classified
- Restricted
- Mil-Spec Grade
Here are the official case odds for cases in CS2 from Valve:
| Rarity | Color | Odds (%) | Odds (Ratio) |
| Mil-Spec Grade | Dark Blue | 79.92% | 4:5 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 1:6 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.2% | 1:31 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 1:156 |
| Exceedingly Rare | Gold | 0.26% | 1:385 |
Based on the above chart and table, you will be able to figure out that the odds of obtaining a pair of gloves or a knife in CS2 are 0.26%. A more simplified way of looking at it is being 1 in 385, which is still quite low and does not guarantee a knife or glove after that many tries.
You should also note that these odds stand for every case, regardless of the type. The odds in cases are in regards to the items and are based on the probabilities in the chart above. Case drops, on the other hand, are different and are much more frequent. CS2 has case drops that happen fairly frequently due to the fact that Valve directly profit from the purchase of case keys.
Even with the knowledge of accurate probabilities of item drops in CS2, the opening of cases still remains a gamble and should be done while still keeping in mind that the chance of obtaining a common item will always be higher than for a rare item.