Introduction to MMA Betting
With numerous divisions in organisations like the UFC, Bellator, and the ONE Championship, the popularity of MMA continues to grow.
Fight nights that feature a title bout are when public interest grows further in what is one of the toughest sports in the world. So when the next fight night comes around, be on point with your MMA betting strategy by following some key guidelines below.
Popular MMA Betting Markets
To get to grips with the hard-hitting world of MMA betting, here are some of the markets that the public leans toward.
Moneyline Bets
The moneyline is the market for the match winner. Sportsbooks usually have this as a two-way or three-way option, with the latter including the draw possibility. Study fighter form and head-to-heads to help with decision-making.
Point Spread (or Handicap)
A -1.5 spread on a fighter, for example, means that they would need to win by at least two clear points on the scorecard. Focusing on the winning or losing margin can provide more balanced odds than the moneyline.
Total Rounds (Over/Under)
Will a fight go the distance or be settled in the first round? Study areas like knockout stats and fighting styles to determine how long a fight may go, with options like under 1.5 and over 2.5 rounds.
Method of Victory
The method of victory is a great alternative when there is a strong favourite, as it adds the condition of how a fighter will win. Will it be by a submission or a knockout? Look at a fighter’s finishing record and fighting style to help determine this.
Round Betting
You can get even more precise by picking the specific round that the fight will end in. MMA fights have either a maximum of 3 or 5 rounds, and recent fight records can help predict this market.
Live Betting
In-fight action in an MMA bout can be followed with live betting. This is an important area to study because it provides the advantage of reacting to how well fighters are performing, often leading to smarter, more informed bets. In-fight tactics can determine in-play bets, and a sudden strong round by an underdog could see markets shift wildly.
Effective MMA Betting Strategies
Invest time in an MMA betting strategy to help with responsible betting and in these other crucial areas.
Research Fighter Form and Stats
MMA bets should be based on pre-fight stats. Size up the strengths and weaknesses of fighters, like the results and overall win-loss records. There are a lot of stats available, like striking accuracy, takedown defence, and significant strikes landed per minute.
Styles Make Fights
Fighters with wrestling, Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, and boxing backgrounds, for example, compete in MMA. Analyse the different styles to see how a fighter might handle a specific opponent, as well as point to the method of victory.
Injury and Weight Cut Considerations
Divisions in MMA are organised by weight, which can affect the outcome of matches. It’s hard for a fighter to pack on extra pounds and move up a division because it could slow their movements and raise fatigue factors. Likewise, someone dropping weight may lack usual striking power.
Home Advantage and Camps
There could be an advantage gained by a fighter stepping into the octagon in their home country. Gather information from training camps and read news reports to try and spot any potential distractions, like a fallout with a trainer ahead of a fight.
Advanced MMA Betting Strategies
As a goal for progression in your MMA betting strategies, here are some guidelines to help you push into deeper analysis.
Value Betting
Understanding the value of odds and their implied probability will lead to value bets. By rating a fighter’s chance of winning a match through research, you will know what odds you expect to see them at, i.e., their chance of winning. If a bookmaker has the quote longer than your estimate, your bet has value.
Statistical Analysis
The importance of statistical analysis can’t be overstated. Research everything, from significant strike defence to takedown accuracy and average submissions attempted. Deeper insights paint a clear picture of who may win and by what method.
Monitoring Line Movement
MMA odds are influenced by public support. If an influx of bets arrives for one fighter, it could be the public overestimating their chance, maybe because of media hype. That means their opponent’s price will lengthen, and if your statistics have led to backing the underdog, the line movement will benefit you.
Using Expert Analysis and Reports
Another angle to work into MMA betting is reading and listening to experts. Take as many nuggets of information as you can from people with inside knowledge of fighters. Read betting tips and predictions to piece together extra information for informed betting decisions.
Key Factors to Consider in MMA Betting
Beyond fighter stats, there are other external factors that could determine what happens on fight night.
Fighter Experience and Record
A fighter in their first title bout could be feeling pressure like never before. Likewise, a fighter just three fights into their MMA career isn’t going to have the same development as a 10-fight veteran, which can play into their ability to handle pressure.
Referee and Judge Influence
There’s no way to tell how a judge is scoring a fight based on their personal views of what’s going on. But they influence what happens on the scorecards, as do the referees, by how long they let certain situations develop in the fight.
Public Sentiment
While increased confidence in an outcome is generally a good sign, public sentiment on a market doesn’t guarantee a win. It’s good to shut out public sentiment and focus on your research, and if that’s contrary to what the market is showing, trust yourself.
In Conclusion
The key to a solid long-term MMA betting strategy is learning the strengths and weaknesses of the fighters, including what weight they are fighting at, along with match-up analysis.
There tends to be deeper market variety on big UFC title fight nights on popular sportsbooks, which is a good time to advance your strategies. Always bet within your means with a planned staking strategy for a responsible, enjoyable betting experience.